The cable, which is dated 11 June 2008, also states that Maung Aye claimed that 300,000 people had been killed by the cyclone. Maung Aye, according to the cable was so incensed by coverage of the disaster that he ordered the sealing off of the delta region and is quoted in the cable saying that the death toll would be released; “over his dead body.”
The 300,000 figure compares with official estimates which are closer to 150,000. The cable’s figure would put Nargis in the league with the deadliest on record, alongside the lower estimates for Cyclone Bhola, which struck Bangladesh in 1971.
Nay Win Maung meanwhile also told the US embassy that two factions emerged in response to the cyclone, in which Maung Aye and current vice president Tin Aung Myint Oo formed a hard line faction. According to the cable they became more “aggressive” as information about the devastation leaked out. Nay Win Maung is quoted as describing vice President Tin Aung Myint Oo as a “cowboy”. However; “Nay Win Maung said it was Prime Minister Thein Sein who had appealed directly to Than Shwe to secure the Senior General’s permission to allow international and humanitarian staff to travel to the affected areas.” He further described Thein Sein and head of the USDP, Htay Oo as “smart” and “pragmatic”. The cable suggests meanwhile that Tin Aung Myint Oo’s rise, was an intentional policy of Than Shwe’s, in order to divide him from fellow “hard liner,” Maung Aye. Who it is believed may have formed a hard line faction, perhaps against the senior general.
The US offered to deliver aid via their naval vessels to the delta, which induced fears that the US would invade in similar fashion to their invasion of Iraq.
Maung Aye, who is now retired, is believed to be in poor health and be a heavy drinker, which has resulted in him being viewed as some what unreliable. He is roundly described as a hard line traditionalist who opposed even tactical signs of softening from the regime, such as cease fires with armed ethnic groups in the 1990′s and warmer relations with ASEAN countries.
However doubts will surely remain about the source of the information. Burma scholar Bertil Lintner described the possibility of a Russian naval presence as “impossible,” whilst stating that the information was probably “opportunism” on the part of Nay Win Maung; as he attempted to gain favour with the US embassy.
The most recent cables form part of an estimated 250,000 leaked cables that wikileaks released simultaneously, there are believed to be over 3,000 relating to Burma.
2011.09.05 Democratic Voice of Burma 2011.09.06 Mizzima Wikileak's cable